Prognostics: Design, Implementation, and Challenges

Prognostics is an essential part of condition-based maintenance (CBM), described as predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) of a system. It is also a key technology for an integrated vehicle health management (IVHM) system that leads to improved safety and reliability. A vast amount of research has been presented in the literature to develop prognostics models that are able to predict a system’s RUL. These models can be broadly categorised into experience-based models, data-driven models and physics-based models. Therefore, careful consideration needs to be given to selecting which prognostics model to take forward and apply for each real application. Currently, developing reliable prognostics models in real life is challenging for various reasons, such as the design complexity associated with a system, the high uncertainty and its propagation in the degradation, system level prognostics, the evaluation framework and a lack of prognostics standards. This paper is written with the aim to bring forth the challenges and opportunities for developing prognostics models for complex systems and making researchers aware of these challenges and opportunities

Comparison of different classification algorithms for fault detection and fault isolation in complex systems

Due to the lack of sufficient results seen in literature, feature extraction and classification methods of hydraulic systems appears to be somewhat challenging. This paper compares the performance of three classifiers (namely linear support vector machine (SVM), distance-weighted k-nearest neighbor (WKNN), and decision tree (DT) using data from optimized and non-optimized sensor set solutions. The algorithms are trained with known data and then tested with unknown data for different scenarios characterizing faults with different degrees of severity. This investigation is based solely on a data-driven approach and relies on data sets that are taken from experiments on the fuel system. The system that is used throughout this study is a typical fuel delivery system consisting of standard components such as a filter, pump, valve, nozzle, pipes, and two tanks. Running representative tests on a fuel system are problematic because of the time, cost, and reproduction constraints involved in capturing any significant degradation. Simulating significant degradation requires running over a considerable period; this cannot be reproduced quickly and is costly

Towards design of prognostics and health management solutions for maritime assets

With increase in competition between OEMs of maritime assets and operators alike, the need to maximize the productivity of an equipment and increase operational efficiency and reliability is increasingly stringent and challenging. Also, with the adoption of availability contracts, maritime OEMs are becoming directly interested in understanding the health of their assets in order to maximize profits and to minimize the risk of a system's failure. The key to address these challenges and needs is performance optimization. For this to be possible it is important to understand that system failure can induce downtime which will increase the total cost of ownership, therefore it is important by all means to minimize unscheduled maintenance. If the state of health or condition of a system, subsystem or component is known, condition-based maintenance can be carried out and system design optimization can be achieved thereby reducing total cost of ownership. With the increasing competition with regards to the maritime industry, it is important that the state of health of a component/sub-system/system/asset is known before a vessel embarks on a mission. Any breakdown or malfunction in any part of any system or subsystem on board vessel during the operation offshore will lead to large economic losses and sometimes cause accidents. For example, damages to the fuel oil system of vessel's main engine can result in huge downtime as a result of the vessel not being in operation. This paper presents a prognostic and health management (PHM) development process applied on a fuel oil system powering diesel engines typically used in various cruise and fishing vessels, dredgers, pipe laying vessels and large oil tankers. This process will hopefully enable future PHM solutions for maritime assets to be designed in a more formal and systematic way

A simple state-based prognostic model for filter clogging

In today's maintenance planning, fuel filters are replaced or cleaned on a regular basis. Monitoring and implementation of prognostics on filtration system have the potential to avoid costs and increase safety. Prognostics is a fundamental technology within Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM). Prognostic models can be categorised into three major categories: 1) Physics-based models 2) Data-driven models 3) Experience-based models. One of the challenges in the progression of the clogging filter failure is the inability to observe the natural clogging filter failure due to time constraint. This paper presents a simple solution to collect data for a clogging filter failure. Also, it represents a simple state-based prognostic with duration information (SSPD) method that aims to detect and forecast clogging of filter in a laboratory based fuel rig system. The progression of the clogging filter failure is created unnaturally. The degradation level is divided into several groups. Each group is defined as a state in the failure progression of clogging filter. Then, the data is collected to create the clogging filter progression states unnaturally. The SSPD method consists of three steps: clustering, clustering evaluation, and remaining useful life (RUL) estimation. Prognosis results show that the SSPD method is able to predicate the RUL of the clogging filter accurately

A rest time-based prognostic framework for state of health estimation of lithium-ion batteries with regeneration phenomena

State of health (SOH) prognostics is significant for safe and reliable usage of lithium-ion batteries. To accurately predict regeneration phenomena and improve long-term prediction performance of battery SOH, this paper proposes a rest time-based prognostic framework (RTPF) in which the beginning time interval of two adjacent cycles is adopted to reflect the rest time. In this framework, SOH values of regeneration cycles, the number of cycles in regeneration regions and global degradation trends are extracted from raw SOH time series and predicted respectively, and then the three sets of prediction results are integrated to calculate the final overall SOH prediction values. Regeneration phenomena can be found by support vector machine and hyperplane shift (SVM-HS) model by detecting long beginning time intervals. Gaussian process (GP) model is utilized to predict the global degradation trend, and nonlinear models are utilized to predict the regeneration amplitude and the cycle number of each regeneration region. The proposed framework is validated through experimental data from the degradation tests of lithium-ion batteries. The results demonstrate that both the global degradation trend and the regeneration phenomena of the testing batteries can be well predicted. Moreover, compared with the published methods, more accurate SOH prediction results can be obtained under this framewor

State of health estimation of Li-ion batteries with regeneration phenomena: a similar rest time-based prognostic framework

State of health (SOH) prediction in Li-ion batteries plays an important role in intelligent battery management systems (BMS). However, the existence of capacity regeneration phenomena remains a great challenge for accurately predicting the battery SOH. This paper proposes a novel prognostic framework to predict the regeneration phenomena of the current battery using the data of a historical battery. The global degradation trend and regeneration phenomena (characterized by regeneration amplitude and regeneration cycle number) of the current battery are extracted from its raw SOH time series. Moreover, regeneration information of the historical battery derived from corresponding raw SOH data is utilized in this framework. The global degradation trend and regeneration phenomena of the current battery are predicted, and then the prediction results are integrated together to calculate the overall SOH prediction values. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) is employed to obtain an appropriate regeneration threshold for the historical battery. Gaussian process (GP) model is adopted to predict the global degradation trend, and linear models are utilized to predict the regeneration amplitude and the cycle number of each regeneration region. The proposed framework is validated using experimental data from the degradation tests of Li-ion batteries. The results demonstrate that both the global degradation trend and the regeneration phenomena of the testing batteries can be well predicted. Moreover, compared with the published methods, more accurate SOH prediction results can be obtained under this framewor

Accommodating repair actions into gas turbine prognostics

Elements of gas turbine degradation, such as compressor fouling, are recoverable through maintenance actions like compressor washing. These actions increase the usable engine life and optimise the performance of the gas turbine. However, these maintenance actions are performed by a separate organization to those undertaking fleet management operations, leading to significant uncertainty in the maintenance state of the asset. The uncertainty surrounding maintenance actions impacts prognostic efficacy. In this paper, we adopt Bayesian on-line change point detection to detect the compressor washing events. Then, the event detection information is used as an input to a prognostic algorithm, advising an update to the estimation of remaining useful life. To illustrate the capability of the approach, we demonstrated our on-line Bayesian change detection algorithms on synthetic and real aircraft engine service data, in order to identify the compressor washing events for a gas turbine and thus provide demonstrably improved prognosis

Knowledge management yesterday and tomorrow: exploring an ‘Intellectual Paradox’

Knowledge management continues to be characterized by strong contextual application with diversity of techniques, tools and applications which practitioners far and wide seem to agree and adopt. However, when it comes to its philosophical distinctness, it is yet to achieve something as seemingly easy as a common definition. There is significant agreement on fluidity and methods of application but limited consensus on philosophical interpretation. Furthermore, that we know what it is, acknowledge its impact, functional relevance and yet cannot articulate a common methodology points to what this paper terms an ‘intellectual paradox’. An intellectual paradox is the phenomenon whereby professionals and academics acknowledge a concept, practice it, write about it, and promote its relevance individually but as a collective lack a consensus on exactly what it is. This paper seeks to explore this phenomenon in detail and to propose a philosophical framework. It further explores the role of the traditional composition; people, process and technology in sustaining this suggested conundrum. This phenomenon seems to tie neatly with the tacit form of knowledge on the basis of the difficulty in articulating a common definitional framework of perception, though it could be argued that it is merely exhibiting characteristics of ‘Tacit’ knowledge management; thereby justifying the status quo. Some authors point to “descriptive frameworks” and insufficient addressing of learning including structural differences in organisations. This difficulty per some writers, results from the use of multiple and variable methods, tools techniques and strategies. Their alternative proposition views for a both ‘descriptive and prescriptive’ framework still did not yield a consensus either. This paper seeks to explore the problem and to propose a new definition

A Bayesian approach to fault identification in the presence of multi-component degradation

Fault diagnosis typically consists of fault detection, isolation and identification. Fault detection and isolation determine the presence of a fault in a system and the location of the fault. Fault identification then aims at determining the severity level of the fault. In a practical sense, a fault is a conditional interruption of the system ability to achieve a required function under specified operating condition; degradation is the deviation of one or more characteristic parameters of the component from acceptable conditions and is often a main cause for fault generation. A fault occurs when the degradation exceeds an allowable threshold. From the point a new aircraft takes off for the first time all of its components start to degrade, and yet in almost all studies it is presumed that we can identify a single fault in isolation, i.e. without considering multi-component degradation in the system. This paper proposes a probabilistic framework to identify a single fault in an aircraft fuel system with consideration of multi-component degradation. Based on the conditional probabilities of sensor readings for a specific fault, a Bayesian method is presented to integrate distributed sensory information and calculate the likelihood of all possible fault severity levels. The proposed framework is implemented on an experimental aircraft fuel rig which illustrates the applicability of the proposed method

Progress towards a Framework for Aerospace Vehicle Reasoning (FAVER)

This paper proposes a reasoning framework to diagnose faults at the vehicle level in a complex machine like an aircraft. The current focus of Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM) is on diagnosing and prognosing faults at the component and subsystem levels; only a few IVHM systems consider the interaction between the systems. To diagnose faults at the vehicle level, an IVHM System needs a framework that recognizes the causal relationships between systems and the likelihood of fault propagation between them. The framework should also possess an element of reasoning to assess data from all systems, to assign priorities, and to resolve ambiguities. The Framework for Aerospace VEhicle Reasoning (FAVER) that is proposed in this paper uses a digital twin of the aircraft systems to emulate functioning of the aircraft and to simulate the effect of fault propagation due to systems interactions. FAVER applies reasoning that can handle fault signatures from multiple systems in the form of symptom vectors, to detect and isolate cascading faults and their root causes. The blending of a digital twin and reasoning in this framework will enable FAVER to: i) isolate faults that have both local and cascading effects on the concerned systems, ii) identify faults that were previously unknown, and iii) resolve ambiguous faults. This paper explains the different steps involved in developing FAVER and how this framework can be demonstrated in the aforementioned scenarios with the help of different use cases. This paper also talks about the challenges to be faced while developing this framework and ways to overcome them